Because of all this, predicting winners becomes harder and harder; it's no longer about who's the best so much as it is who's the best while also being the most popular while also being the most likely to cash in on their Oscar buzz while also being the most likely to not give a lame acceptance speech, etc., etc., etc. But lets get to the picks...
Best Picture (Michael) - Sometimes this category is a shoe-in, but this year it seems as though any film might win. "Little Miss Sunshine" is immensely popular, and the
dark horse candidate this year, but I don't think it will win (if only because I specifically mentioned in my review it wouldn't win any Oscars, and I'm trying to save face). Likewise, "Letters from Iwo Jima" is critically loved, but when it comes right down to it,
not enough people actually saw it. The most likely winner this year is the beloved "The Queen," but I would be extremely pleased (and not horribly surprised) to see "The Departed" run away with the honor.
Best Picture (Alan) - This year’s race feels tighter than most. It isn’t really coming down to a favorite/spoiler dynamic like last year- any of these films could win. I’m expecting “Babel,” but would prefer “The Departed;” “United 93” should’ve been up here as well.
Best Actor (Michael) - This is one of the few easy categories:
It will be Forest Whitaker for his great performance in "The Last King of Scotland." Still, it would be nice to see Peter O'Toole win an actual Oscar for "Venus," instead of just an honorary one. If I had my way though, the award would be going to Clive Owen for
"Children of Men." His performance in that film anchored it and gave the story both life and urgency.
Best Actor (Alan) - Come on - where’s Sascha Baron Cohen? I think Forest Whitaker is a foregone conclusion in this category, although I really enjoyed Peter O’Toole in “Venus.”
Best Actress (Michael) - Here's another given: Having won almost every other award on the planet, Helen Mirren will win for her role as Queen Elizabeth II in "The Queen." Still, if any of the other actresses win I'd be happy, just so long as it's not Meryl Streep. Did she really need another nomination?
Best Actress (Alan) - Helen Mirren is another mortal lock for this category, which I feel is deservedly hers to win. Otherwise, I can’t recall any glaring snubs- this is a well-qualified group of nominees.
Best Supporting Actor (Michael) - Originally I would have said Eddie Murphy all the way for "Dreamgirls," but the hideous "Norbit" may have hurt his chances. If that's
the case, then my vote is on Mark Wahlberg for "The Departed," who managed to steal scenes from the likes of Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Jack Nicholson.
I'd also love to see Jackie Earle Haley, one of the original Bad News Bears, win for his portrayel of a pedophile in "Little Children."
Best Supporting Actor (Alan) - Provided “Norbit” hasn’t killed his chances, one would imagine that Eddie Murphy would win here. I’d like to see the award go to Djimon Hounsou for “Blood Diamond,” but I’m not holding my breath. As for omissions: I preferred Steve Carell’s performance in “Little Miss Sunshine” to Alan Arkin’s, but that’s just me.
Best Supporting Actress - (Michael) - I'm going to show my soft side for a moment: It would be the cutest thing in the world to see a crying Abigail Breslin take the stage to accept her Oscar. Still, the more likely winner this year will be Jennifer Hudson, who went from an American Idol to a Dreamgirl and now, an Oscar Darling (Lame, Gene Shalit-like blurb is copyright 2007 by Michael James Allen.)
Supporting Actress - (Alan) - I think Jennifer Hudson will win on the strength of her singing in “Dreamgirls,” but somehow I’d rather the award go to a better acting performance, like Cate Blanchett from “Notes on a Scandal,” or Abigail Breslin in “Little Miss Sunshine.” Beyond that, It would’ve been nice to see Jodie Whittaker of “Venus,” Catherine O’Hara of “For Your Consideration,” or Diane Lane of “Hollywoodland” take one of the Babel nominations.
Best Director - (Michael) - No bones about it: If Martin Scorcese does not finally win this year for directing, I will beat myself to death with a giant, cardboard cutout of an Oscar. I really think that this is his year, but then again, I said the exact same thing in 2004 with "The Aviator." The only way I might feel a little consolation is if Paul Greengrass gets it for "United 93." Greengrass told that horrible story in the best possible way, and when it comes down to it, that's what the best directing award is all about.
Best Director - (Alan) - Regardless of which film wins Best Picture, I have to think that Martin Scorsese will win for “The Departed,” which would make me happy. There were no major exclusions, although I might’ve expected Bill Condon, had “Dreamgirls” been nominated above.
Best Original Screenplay - (Alan) - This is the category that "Little Miss Sunshine" will be rewarded for. Michael Arndt wrote a tight, funny script, and the Academy can
award the movie as a whole with this single win. I'd be a happy man if "Pan's Labyrinth" took this as well, but voters might be scared off by the fact that it's entirely in Spanish. In a perfect world, however, Rian Johnson would be awarded for the raw and unique "Brick," a film that took a stale idea and made it fresh again.
Best Original Screenplay - (Alan) - As a rule, quirky independent films do not often win Best Picture. They do however consistently pick up Original Screenplay awards- this is “Little Miss Sunshine’s” spot.
Best Adapted Screenplay - (Michael) - While it's nice to see "Children of Men" and "Little Children" both nominated in this category, neither will win. "Borat" is a
possibility as it seems people want it to have some kind of recognition, but then again, that film didn't even have a script per se. In the end, though, I think "The Departed" will win. William Monahan's script is witty and intense, and critics have pointed it out
specifically as a key element in why the film works so well.
Best Adapted Screenplay - (Alan) - Regardless of whether it wins the big award, I see this as a good bet for “The Departed.”
Best Original Score - (Michael) - This is always the category I get excited about. It's particularly interesting this year because few of the nominees are big names, a la
John Williams or James Horner. This is the perfect opportunity for a lesser known composer to start earning some credibility, and the most deserving of the nominees is Javier Navarette for his haunting "Pan's Labyrinth" score. I'm always happy to see the
great Thomas Newman nominated, this time for "The Good German," but he's done much better work in the past.
Gustavo Santaolalla won (unfairly) last year for "Brokeback Mountain," so his equally lackluster score for "Babel" doesn't stand much of a chance. And likewise, while it would be fun to see the completely insane Philip Glass take the stage, his score for "Notes on a Scandal" just isn't up to par. As is always the case, however, my favorite scores of the
year aren't even nominated: James Newton Howard's beautiful "Lady in the Water" score transcends the mediocre film surrounding it. Also, I can't believe John Powell who had such a prodigious year doing the fantastic scores to "X-Men: The Last Stand," "United
93," "Happy Feet," and "Ice Age: The Meltdown" didn't get a single nomination.
Best Original Score - (Alan) - “Notes on a Scandal”- the most distinctive score of the year.
Best Song - (Michael) - "Dreamgirls" has three nominations in this category and will win. For what song, I don't know, as I can't even really tell them apart. I just wish Three
Six Mafia could win again. As Jon Stewart put it last year: "Three Six Mafia: One. Martin Scorcese: Zero."
Best Song - (Alan) - Listen- the most Oscar-like of the eligible “Dreamgirls” tunes.
Best Makeup - (Michael) - "Pan's Labyrinth" all the way: Beautiful make-up that enhanced the story rather than distract. Of course, there's really not much debate, when the main competition is the gore-centric goo from "Apocalypto" and the horrible old age effects from "Click." Yes, folks, "Click." Someone must've sold their soul to the devil for this film to get an Oscar nomination...
Foreign Language Film - (Alan) - This is where “Pan’s Labyrinth” will get its deserved attention.
Best Visual Effects - (Michael) - Three films are nominated and none of them particularly good. The best in terms of effects, however, has to be "Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest," if only for the fantastic way they handled Davy Jones. "Superman Returns" also had some top-notch visuals, but they weren't nearly as showy and may suffer becasue of it. As for "Poseidon," well, we've seen boats crash before ("Titanic," "The Perfect Storm") and it was done so in much more artistic ways.
Best Animated Feature - (Michael) - Pixar has plenty of awards and doesn't need another for the lackluster "Cars." While I'm pulling for the sweet, scary, and inventive "Monster House," it's more likely that the much-loved "Happy Feet" will walk away with this award.
And finally, some nomination surprises:
How can a film that was largely improvised (with participants who were not really aware of the story) be up for best screenplay, let alone adapted screenplay? This is making my brain hurt…
Unfortunately the three songs nominated from “Dreamgirls” are the weakest of the film- any five songs from the original stage version would’ve swept the nominations.
Not really a surprise, but the animation category continues to be dominated by kiddie fare. That’s too bad, as “A Scanner Darkly” was a visually exceptional film.
DiCaprio was good in “Blood Diamond,” but great in “The Departed;” that’s where he should’ve been nominated.
That's it for us, enjoy the show!
